Here is the list of most of the favorites, based on time from the IAAF charts. Next February there might be a few others in the mix, who qualified last year in a marathon or qualified with a half marathon.
2:06:07 Galen Rupp
2:07:56 Leonard KORIR
2:09:09 Scott Fauble
2:09:25 Jared Ward
2:10:36 Jacob RILEY
2:10:37 Jerrell MOCK
2:10:53 Parker STINSON
2:10:56 Andrew BUMBALOUGH
2:11:10 Matt MCDONALD
2:11:14 Matt LLANO
2:11:14 Scott SMITH
2:11:38 Brendan GREGG
2:11:42 Noah DRODDY
2:11:44 Wilkerson GIVEN
2:11:54 Diego ESTRADA
2:12:10 Bernard LAGAT
2:12:15 Andrew COLLEY
2:12:25 Augustus MAIYO
2:12:39 Brogan Austin
Rupp – Probably a toss up. If he’s healthy and the NOP controversy has settled, then he’ll be a favorite if not the favorite to make the team. But coming off major reconstructive surgery last year, and losing his coach and program just a few weeks ago due to a doping scandal, he might not even line up. He held on to 2:08 pace through 23 miles last week in Chicago before dropping out.
Korir – Moved to the US from Kenya about 10 years ago and ran NCAA track and XC for Iona. Ran a sub 2:08 debut in Amsterdam yesterday, fastest in American history. He’s on the upswing and has been strong on the track and roads the past few years with the Army team (WCAP). Likely to make the team in either marathon or 10000 m or both.
Fauble – 2:09 and top American (7th) at Boston this year. If Rupp doesn’t run Fauble has a real good chance at making the team. And even if Rupp does run, he’s been getting stronger each year and would battle the others for that 3rd spot.
Ward – 2nd best American at Boston (8th) and not far behind Fauble there. Ran on the 2016 team in Rio and was 6th overall in the Olympics. That’s a pretty good feat and shows he’s a gamer. He is also running NY in a couple weeks and that may or may not affect his training going into the Trials. Ward, like Fauble, is a strong favorite to make this team.
–we might almost be done here–could easily come down to these four, they are a notch above everyone else.
However, there are a number of exciting newcomers and later bloomers who could step in (and if history is any guide, it’s often someone that is off the radar a bit who steps up on the big day to make the Olympic team).
We’ll just jump in with the next three on the list: Riley, Mock, and Stinson. Jacob Riley at 31 is a journeyman runner running for Hanson’s with Desi et al. early on, and has had a number of injuries, including the same injury and surgery that Rupp is coming off. He ran a 3 minute PR last week in Chicago to place 9th and place as the top American. Jerrel Mock is just 24 and unsponsored. He ran at Colorado State and was an All American, but did not have a strong senior year and for the past year and half has been on his own. However, he’s been placing high at a number of big races, including USA 20K championships, Bix 7, and Utica Boilermaker. The 2:10 at Chicago will get him a sponsor. Parker Stinson has shown a lot of potential over the past few years, but his race tactics haven’t been great (going out fast and fading). But he’s now coached by Olympian Dathan Ritzenhein and has tempered his early pacing. He ran even splits to break 2:11 in Chicago.
And that brings us to two more competitors not on this list: Ritz himself and Chris Derrick, both high school and college running legends who have had injury plagued pro careers. Ritz has a 2:07 PR but that was some 7 years ago, and he’s now in his late 30s. So just getting to the start line is a big deal. They say talent doesn’t go away, but he’s a very long shot to even make the top 6 or 7 in Atlanta. Derrick showed much promise as a high school phenom and college All American at Stanford (running 27:20 for 10000) m. And he won the USA XC championships in 2015. But he’s hardly been healthy since, and broke his foot in a road race a few months ago. Making the starting line and placing in the top 15 would be a good day for Derrick who is still under 30.
Last but not least is the wily old man, Bernard Lagat. At 45 he ran a 2:12 marathon this summer in Australia for an American masters record. He’s won Olympic and world championship medals in mid-distances and has been a strong road runner. He’s had some controversy in the past but remains a popular presence on the circuit. A few months ago, he was actually considered as a contender. Not likely with the newer runners stepping up. But he IS Bernard Lagat and he could surprise us all by making yet another Olympic team.
Others to watch out for: Shadrack Kipkirchir, Korir’s teammate has a 27:07 10000 m PR. Should he line up in Atlanta, he’d have a good chance at making this team.
Favorites
Korir winning Edinburgh XC against World and Olympic 4th place marathoner, Callum Hawkins of Britain (Athletics Weekly)
- Korir, 2. Rupp, 3. Ward – 4th and 5th ready to take a spot if one of the early favorites does not run or lets up an inch: Fauble and Mock
rrunnin234 