Rates of Decline for a Masters Runner

At the London Marathon last weekend 59 year old Jenny Hitchings ran a 2:45:27, shattering her own age group world record of 2:50:36, which she set at New York City in 2019. That record spurred some online controversy, how could a relatively unknown run nearly five minutes faster than the venerated Olympic Gold Medalist Joan Samuelson at the same age?

This time, after bettering her lifetime personal best of 2:46, which she did back in 2011 at age 47, at least some on the internet have gone apoplectic, accusing her of using PEDs. Arguing that it’s impossible to PR at age 59.

I don’t know, I have seen a lot of remarkable masters breakthroughs in recent years, such as Tommy Hughes of Ireland running a 2:30 marathon in his 60s, or 60 year old Austrailian Steve Moneghetti doing a sub 16 5K last fall. Hitchings is at their level, and the trolls and naysayers on the internet don’t like it. Maybe because A) she is female and B) she was not an elite-level runner when she was younger while the likes of Hughes an Moneghetti were pros.

One of the more common arguments is that it’s simply not possible for an athlete to run as fast or faster at 60 compared to their mid-40s. And they cite the commonly used statistic that runners after the age of about 35 or 40 decline at a rate of about 1% per year. Of course, the first mistake they make is that they equate that 1% as a rule, and deviation Will Not Be Tolerated! (so if an athlete’s times decline at a rate much less than 1% they are immediately suspected of taking testosterone or performance-enhancing drugs). Another mistake you often see is that often the most outspoken have declined at a rate much higher than 1%, so using the famous adage ‘anyone faster than me must be cheating!’

This article Sub 3-Hour Marathon Runners for Five Consecutive Decades Demonstrate a Reduced Age-Related Decline in Performance https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphys.2021.649282/full counters those arguments and insecurities, and the data from those in the 5 decades sub 3 marathon camp (including Olympic Gold medalist Joan Benoit Samuelson) have declined much less than 1% per year, more in the range of 0.5% to 0.7%. The journal article is also summarized here in Canadian Runner.

Before delving into my own rate of decline, what about Jenny Hitchings and her remarkable feat? Amazing is all I can say. I don’t think it’s at all fair to say that she’s an obvious drug cheat. Nevertheless, I’m in the camp of giving the benefit of any doubt but I also believe that high level athletes (record setters and champions) in the masters ranks need to tested both at competitive events and at random times outside of competition.

USATF and USADA need to up their testing. I have been to about 20 USATF championships over the past decade and one for World Masters championship. At these events you have to sign a waiver acknowledging clean sport and that you will agree to drug testing. That’s fine and needed, but they need to do more. Test at least six or eight athletes at every championship road or cross country race. Currently, they only test a few athletes a few times a year. They also need to implement random drug testing for athletes who are at or approaching the record breaking level of performance. As far as I know that is not done at all.

My Own Rates of Decline with Some Real Data

The table below summarizes my best performances at different ages over the years, starting with my best times as an open runner (all those list were set in my mid-late 20s), note those were altitude conversions, using the NCAA calculator. In my masters years, the times are mostly sea level but some years I didn’t live at or travel to sea level.

Age	1 mile	5K	1/2 Marathon	Marathon
20-39	4:26	15:15	1:10	2:29
40-45	4:38	16:21	1:17	2:44
46	5:08	17:41	1:21	3:12 (trail)*
47	4:56	17:03	1:19	3:00
48	4:54	17:08	1:19	3:10 (trail)*
49	5:08	17:28	—	—
50	5:00	17:23	1:19	3:09 (trail)*
51	5:00	17:01	1:18	—
52	5:14	18:05	—	—
53	5:11	17:43	1:20	—
54	5:03	17:17	1:19	—
55	5:10	17:17	1:20	3:17 (trail)*
56	5:10	17:27	1:19	3:15 (trail)*
57	—	18:21	1:20	—
58	5:11	18:10	1:24	—
59	5:11	17:40	1:18	2:58
60	5:14	17:29	1:19	3:12 (Boston)
61	5:14	17:28	1:17	—
62	5:24	18:10	1:26	—
63	5:28	18:11	1:23	3:02
64	5:18	18:30	1:21	3:00
65	?	18:24	1:24

How has it gone? I think the biggest drop off for me has been in the mile, while I have done better in the 5K and particularly half marathon, and the marathon is somewhere in between.

Open to 40-45 age group: In the mile I slowed by about 12 seconds in 12 years a drop of 4.5%. For the 5K it was 1:06 over 13 years 7.2% decline. In the half I slowed by 10.0% in 17 years, and marathon the decline was 9.8% in 16 years. Note that in my early 40s I was mostly running 40-50 miles a week, and only did one marathon block averaging 55-60 miles.

Open to now – age 64-65: I the mile I have declined by 14.7% and 5K 13.4%. In the half only 6%! and full it has been 9.3%.

Now the interesting statistics, the one that the online naysayers do not want deviation from 1% per year. From my 20s to mid-60s, the decline has been 0.41% per year for the mile, 0.55% at 5K, 0.15% for half marathon, and 0.23% a year for the marathon. So I beat the aging curve by a fair amount.

As to why, maybe that’s something for another blog post here, but I think some important contributing factors would be maintaining good healthy and weight, not getting frequently injured/nor having chronic biomechanical issues, adjusting my training and adapting to the aging process, and no doubt some good aging genetics thus far.

However, compared to the likes of Hitchings, Janine Rice, Jacob Nur, or Alistair Walker it’s nothing that remarkable. They are at the extreme end of the bell curve.